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The Twin Engines of Increased Conviction: A Framework for Long-Term Investing
Harnessing the knowledge flywheel for companies that get stronger over time
Oct 17
11
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The Twin Engines of Increased Conviction: A Framework for Long-Term Investing
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August 2024
Making Money When Others Lose Their Heads: Long-Term Strategies for Short-Term Panics
A rational investor's guide to crisis and opportunity.
Aug 28
14
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Making Money When Others Lose Their Heads: Long-Term Strategies for Short-Term Panics
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The Ellsberg Paradox: Can Uncertain Investments Be Your Safest Bet?
How a famous investor 4x'ed his money by leveraging our fear of the unknown
Aug 19
18
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The Ellsberg Paradox: Can Uncertain Investments Be Your Safest Bet?
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Sentinel Companies: How to Identify, Track & Profit From Businesses that Anticipate New Market Trends
A note on harnessing environmental science to apply early warning indicators in financial markets
Aug 13
9
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Sentinel Companies: How to Identify, Track & Profit From Businesses that Anticipate New Market Trends
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The Power of Simplicity: How to Explain (and Understand) Anything
Strategies and techniques for simplifying complex ideas to make profitable investment decisions
Aug 6
10
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The Power of Simplicity: How to Explain (and Understand) Anything
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July 2024
Beyond the Base Case: Unlocking the Power of Scenario Analysis for Equity Research - Part II
Making investment decisions, black swans, and using base rates to anchor your forecasts
Jul 31
3
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Beyond the Base Case: Unlocking the Power of Scenario Analysis for Equity Research - Part II
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Beyond the Base Case: Unlocking the Power of Scenario Analysis for Equity Research - Part I
How to identify critical factors, assess risks, and make informed decisions to better forecast earnings
Jul 29
4
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Beyond the Base Case: Unlocking the Power of Scenario Analysis for Equity Research - Part I
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Mergers & Acquisitions: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (A Reality Check for Equity Analysts)
Avoiding common pitfalls: how to spot red flags in M&A deals
Jul 18
3
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Mergers & Acquisitions: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (A Reality Check for Equity Analysts)
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Beyond Buying: Thoughts on the Art of Selling Stocks
A framework to think about when to sell at the right time
Jul 8
7
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Beyond Buying: Thoughts on the Art of Selling Stocks
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Safe-Haven Stocks: Finding Firms that Flourish During Recessions
Methodologies for Harnessing Cyclical Sensitivity
Jul 2
23
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Safe-Haven Stocks: Finding Firms that Flourish During Recessions
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June 2024
Building a Robust Industry Analysis Framework
Leveraging industry insights for investment decisions
Jun 26
2
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Building a Robust Industry Analysis Framework
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A Market Rollercoaster: Managing Market Declines
Decision making in periods of high volatility
Jun 24
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A Market Rollercoaster: Managing Market Declines
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